Answer Interesting And Challenging Odds Questions
This page is
more technical than the others, but it's because PokerCruncher
is so powerful. Fasten your seat belts.
So far you've seen examples of some basic odds questions that PokerCruncher can answer:
Let's go deeper and see examples of some more-challenging odds questions that PokerCruncher can answer, using
primarily its Deal-To-Flop and flop texture analysis and hand histograms features. We won't even consider hand ranges here because the hand ranges feature adds an entirely new level of odds questions that can be answered.
Let's go even deeper. Here are some examples of more-advanced odds questions involving multiple hands that PokerCruncher can answer, again using primarily its Deal-To-Flop and hand histograms features:
Give your answer for the last question above before reading PokerCruncher's answer below ...
The last question is an example of conditional probability, which can lead to counter-intuitive results. To make the example more specific, say you raise preflop with AA and 5 opponents see the flop with you and the flop has a pair e.g. it's 772.
A hint: you may think, "it's really hard to flop trips or a full house, how lucky can these people be?, I have to be in the lead 90+% of the time here". The problem with this reasoning is, it's true that it's very hard to flop trips starting from scratch, but given the condition that the flop is paired, it becomes much easier to flop trips, especially if many players see the flop. Furthermore if there's significant betting action in the hand, the probability that someone has trips is probably conditioned even higher, but we won't discuss betting action here.
Here's how you would model this in PokerCruncher: Set the number of players to 6. Give Player1 (you) AA; leave the other 5 players' cards blank (random). Enter 772 for the flop. Set DealTo=Flop. Calculate, and see how often your aces are in the lead.
PokerCruncher's answer is you're in the lead on the flop with AA about 60% of the time. The other 40% of the time, one of your 5 opponents has flopped trips or a full house or quads (this is assuming random cards for your 5 opponents). Is this answer of 40% higher or lower than you expected? If you nailed this question you have our congratulations! Actually it's probably not as hard as we made it out to be, maybe just counter-intuitive at first.
This example shows how PokerCruncher's powerful and general features complement each other to enable you to answer just about any odds question.
These examples just scratch the surface of what you can do with PokerCruncher. The powerful and general simulation and modeling features complement each other well and enable you to answer a limitless variety of interesting odds questions, both basic and advanced questions. The variety of scenarios and questions is limited only by your skill and experience and creativity. As you become more experienced and improve you'll find that you'll set up more interesting or complex scenarios to investigate new aspects of the game, or maybe even simpler and subtler but still important scenarios.
All of this powerful analysis is running directly on your iPhone, iPod touch, or iPad (internet connection not needed) so you can think and study poker anywhere, any time.
So far you've seen examples of some basic odds questions that PokerCruncher can answer:
Some Basic Odds Questions
- Specific hands vs. specific hands preflop, e.g. AA vs. KK preflop.
- Specific hands vs. specific hands on the flop, e.g. the 3-player AA vs. KK vs. JT-suited scenario on the home page.
- Specific hands vs. random hands, e.g. AA vs. a random hand, or vs. 9 random hands.
- How often specific hands make OnePair, TwoPair, etc. by the river (hand histograms). For example how often a flush draw on the flop makes a flush by the river, or how often an open end straight draw on the flop makes a straight by the river.
Let's go deeper and see examples of some more-challenging odds questions that PokerCruncher can answer, using
primarily its Deal-To-Flop and flop texture analysis and hand histograms features. We won't even consider hand ranges here because the hand ranges feature adds an entirely new level of odds questions that can be answered.
Some More-Challenging Odds Questions
- If you have a pocket pair then how often will you flop a set?
- If you have a non-pocket-pair e.g. 72 then how often will you flop trips? Two-pair?
- If you have suited cards then how often will you flop a flush? Make a flush by the river? How often will you flop a flush draw?
- If you have a connector e.g. 76 then how often will you flop a straight? Make a straight by the river? How often will you flop an open end straight draw? What if you have a one-gap connector e.g. 75? Two-gap?
- If you have a one-gap suited connector e.g. 86-suited then how often will you flop a strong draw, i.e. either a flush draw or an open end straight draw or a double gut straight draw? What if you have a two-gap suited connector? A zero-gap suited connector?
- How often does AK flop top pair? Or other non-pairs like KQ, QJ, AT, etc.? How often does AK make top pair by the turn? By the river?
- How often does KK run into an ace on the flop? How often does QQ, JJ, etc. run into an overcard on the flop? How about by the turn? By the river?
- How often does a suited connector like 76-suited overtake AA, KK, etc. on the flop? By the turn? By the river?
- If you have KK, QQ, JJ, etc. then what are the odds that someone has a higher pocket pair preflop? E.g. what are the odds that someone has AA if you have KK?, and what are the odds that someone has AA/KK if you have QQ?, say in a 9-handed game? What about in a 7-handed game? In a 5-handed game? The Deal-To-Hole-Cards feature lets you answer this.
Let's go even deeper. Here are some examples of more-advanced odds questions involving multiple hands that PokerCruncher can answer, again using primarily its Deal-To-Flop and hand histograms features:
Some More-Advanced Odds Questions
- If two players have suited cards of the same suit then what are the odds that they'll (both) flop a flush?
- (Challenge) If say 5 players see the flop with you and the flop has a pair e.g. the flop is 772, then what are the odds that someone has flopped trips or better (assuming random cards for all of the players)? What if 7 players see the flop with you? 3 players?
A Challenge
Give your answer for the last question above before reading PokerCruncher's answer below ...
The last question is an example of conditional probability, which can lead to counter-intuitive results. To make the example more specific, say you raise preflop with AA and 5 opponents see the flop with you and the flop has a pair e.g. it's 772.
A hint: you may think, "it's really hard to flop trips or a full house, how lucky can these people be?, I have to be in the lead 90+% of the time here". The problem with this reasoning is, it's true that it's very hard to flop trips starting from scratch, but given the condition that the flop is paired, it becomes much easier to flop trips, especially if many players see the flop. Furthermore if there's significant betting action in the hand, the probability that someone has trips is probably conditioned even higher, but we won't discuss betting action here.
Answering The Challenge Using PokerCruncher
Here's how you would model this in PokerCruncher: Set the number of players to 6. Give Player1 (you) AA; leave the other 5 players' cards blank (random). Enter 772 for the flop. Set DealTo=Flop. Calculate, and see how often your aces are in the lead.
PokerCruncher's answer is you're in the lead on the flop with AA about 60% of the time. The other 40% of the time, one of your 5 opponents has flopped trips or a full house or quads (this is assuming random cards for your 5 opponents). Is this answer of 40% higher or lower than you expected? If you nailed this question you have our congratulations! Actually it's probably not as hard as we made it out to be, maybe just counter-intuitive at first.
This example shows how PokerCruncher's powerful and general features complement each other to enable you to answer just about any odds question.
Limitless Variety Of Interesting Odds Questions
These examples just scratch the surface of what you can do with PokerCruncher. The powerful and general simulation and modeling features complement each other well and enable you to answer a limitless variety of interesting odds questions, both basic and advanced questions. The variety of scenarios and questions is limited only by your skill and experience and creativity. As you become more experienced and improve you'll find that you'll set up more interesting or complex scenarios to investigate new aspects of the game, or maybe even simpler and subtler but still important scenarios.
All of this powerful analysis is running directly on your iPhone, iPod touch, or iPad (internet connection not needed) so you can think and study poker anywhere, any time.